NOAA 2021 Hurricane Predictions

Boyd

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Jul 31, 2004
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The track is looking like Sam will miss us, but it may not be that simple....

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"But if that jet stream dip sets up farther west or meanders westward, then there is room for Sam to get very close to the U.S. next weekend," Rayno said. That scenario, nine years ago, helped steer Superstorm Sandy west into New Jersey.
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AccuWeather meteorologists did not forecast a similar outcome to Sandy, but they warned of a range of possibilities for the hurricane's track, including one scenario that could cause Sam to track very close to the U.S.
 

Boyd

Administrator
Site Administrator
Jul 31, 2004
8,332
1,917
Ben's Branch, Stephen Creek
Looks like Sam won't be much of a problem for us, but the NWS says:

"Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a couple of days, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."

Screen Shot 2021-09-28 at 3.13.27 PM.png
 
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Boyd

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Site Administrator
Jul 31, 2004
8,332
1,917
Ben's Branch, Stephen Creek
September 1: Remnants of Ida
Overview

Major Hurricane Ida made landfall on the Louisiana coast on August 29, 2021. After producing devastating damage in parts of Louisiana, the storm weakened as it moved inland over the following two days. By the night of August 31, what was then Tropical Depression Ida moved into the southwest portion of the Appalachians. As it continued northeast through the Appalachians, Ida began to interact with a frontal system, and became a post-tropical cyclone early on September 1. However, the baroclinic influence caused by its interaction with the front caused the post-tropical cyclone to re-strengthen, and it became a strongly forced frontal low as it continued further northeast. From the early morning through the late evening of September 1, the center of the low tracked from over West Virginia to approximately along the Interstate 95 corridor from northeast Maryland to northeast New Jersey.

Along its path, the remnants of Ida produced severe impacts over a large swath of the eastern mid-Atlantic, becoming one of the area’s worst natural disasters ever observed. Hours of torrential rainfall near and just west of the center's track, fed by remnant tropical moisture, led to catastrophic flash flooding over portions of eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New Jersey. Numerous rivers experienced major flooding with some having their highest crests on record. In addition, as the system’s warm front lifted through the region, an unusually favorable environment for severe weather developed across much of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. Several tornadoes occurred during the afternoon and evening of September 1, including particularly strong and damaging tornadoes over Gloucester County, New Jersey and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. The remnants of Ida departed the region by the night of September 1, but flood waters would take several days to recede in some cases, and for some areas, recovery from the catastrophic flooding and tornadoes will take years. Prelminary statistics show that 22 people in our local area tragically lost their lives from the storm, in addition to dozens of others in surrounding areas and the Gulf Coast states. Economic damages, while too early to determine, will likely range well into the billons of dollars.

This page provides a summary of the meteorological evolution and impacts of the remnants of Ida in the NWS Mount Holly forecast area. Information should be considered preliminary, and additional information may be added as it is warranted and as further analysis is conducted.


https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20210901
 
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