Wet Forest - Formerly Known as Dry Forest
- Thread starter dragoncjo
- Start date
NJDEP New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection - Rainfall
New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
The rain has finally found me. Most maps showing right around 2" here, and still coming 
Yesterday for the first time I can ever recall the bogs on 206 were completely drying up. I’ve never seen that, at least I don’t recall. This rain will help the sleeper there as it was really drying up.
Southampton got absolutely dumped on yesterday. Based on the water level in my pool, we got around 4 inches of rain between Saturday and Sunday.
We could use the rain here. But looking at the actual forecasts on the days where rain is probable, the range is only 1/10 to 1/4 inch. So, doesn't seem like we will get much. But I'll take whatever we get, at least it would keep the fire risk down.
"Several things make the forecast for the two storms offshore "tricky," wrote Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies in a summary on Sept. 24."
"Among the factors making the forecast so uncertain are the potential action with each other in a potential Fujiwhara effect, and their interaction with a front moving into the Southeast, as well as the potential effects of the system closest to shore moving over the mountainous regions of Hispaniola."
"So far, Hazelton said, the new Google DeepMind ensemble, which has been impressing forecasters with its accuracy, is split on whether the closest system could recurve out into the ocean or make landfall somewhere along the Southeast coast."
"Among the factors making the forecast so uncertain are the potential action with each other in a potential Fujiwhara effect, and their interaction with a front moving into the Southeast, as well as the potential effects of the system closest to shore moving over the mountainous regions of Hispaniola."
"So far, Hazelton said, the new Google DeepMind ensemble, which has been impressing forecasters with its accuracy, is split on whether the closest system could recurve out into the ocean or make landfall somewhere along the Southeast coast."
September's hurricane forecast is historically uncertain. Is the US at risk?
"Interactions like this in the Atlantic basin have little precedent – we don't have an appreciable historical record to draw reference to."
www.usatoday.com
If that's going to happen, you'd never know it from the forecast! But in the past, I've seen them completely ignore an approaching hurricane until they have a lot of confidence where it's going...
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This Afternoon: A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3am, then a chance of showers. Low around 61. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Calm wind.
Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 62.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Guess we aren't getting any rain next week after all? Not really complaining - that's better than a hurricane! We got some rain yesterday, maybe 1/2 inch or so.
As Guy noticed awhile ago, the probability legend on these maps is kind of "backwards" from what we might expect. The lighter, yellow areas have the highest probability and the darker red areas are lower probability.
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There was only 0.38 inch of rain recorded today at the Shamong gage, but more substantial amounts may be coming soon.
A 'full-fledged' nor'easter could hit the East Coast in the coming days. Two scenarios are possible
Here is a map displaying the coming seven-day forecast precipitation totals. As is often the case, it looks as if it wouldn't take much of a shift to make a big change in the totals, say, from under two inches to over four inches, depending on which scenario winds up being closer to the mark.
A 'full-fledged' nor'easter could hit the East Coast in the coming days. Two scenarios are possible
Here is a map displaying the coming seven-day forecast precipitation totals. As is often the case, it looks as if it wouldn't take much of a shift to make a big change in the totals, say, from under two inches to over four inches, depending on which scenario winds up being closer to the mark.
I see the NWS has an initial briefing available now
So far, this doesn't look too bad (famous last words?
). Map shows around 33% probability of getting over two inches rain for most of the Pines (less as you go West)
Most of the Pines shows a 30% or less chance of wind gusts over 45mph, but that increases as you go towards the shore.
So far, this doesn't look too bad (famous last words?
). Map shows around 33% probability of getting over two inches rain for most of the Pines (less as you go West)Most of the Pines shows a 30% or less chance of wind gusts over 45mph, but that increases as you go towards the shore.
On the Thursday afternoon NWS briefing page, their precipitation map is indicating only around two inches for the middle section of South Jersey, with an inch and a half closer to the Delaware and possibly three inches on the coast. That would seem to tally with their 3-Day Quantitative Precipitation forecast map. On their 5-Day QPF map, however, they are now showing a minimum of three inches for nearly all of South Jersey, with four inches on the central Jersey coast.
5-Day Quantitative Precipitation forecast map -- 8 PM 10/9 to 8 PM 10/14 (EDT)
Boyd, could you share the addresses for the rainfall and wind gust probability pages? I've tried to look around for them today, but so far without success.
I hope that no crops in our area are damaged (we haven't grown string beans or peppers in years, so we won't be affected), but I wouldn't mind if a few chiggers caught a nasty chill tonight.
5-Day Quantitative Precipitation forecast map -- 8 PM 10/9 to 8 PM 10/14 (EDT)
Boyd, could you share the addresses for the rainfall and wind gust probability pages? I've tried to look around for them today, but so far without success.
I hope that no crops in our area are damaged (we haven't grown string beans or peppers in years, so we won't be affected), but I wouldn't mind if a few chiggers caught a nasty chill tonight.