El Nino

[Boyd]

Looks like the record rain and snowfall isn't over yet...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=ahJNJlCohan4

El Nino, a Pacific Ocean warming that has contributed to record-breaking snows across the U.S., will continue to affect the weather even as it steadily loses power, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The phenomenon probably will continue into June or July, according to a bureau update today. Sea surface temperatures in two of the areas used to measure the intensity of El Nino have fallen by 0.1 degree Celsius in the last two weeks, the bureau said. They have dropped between 0.5 and 0.6 degree in the last six weeks.

The impact of El Nino will linger for months, said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground Inc. in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

“It heated the atmosphere over the Pacific to record levels,” Masters said by telephone prior to the release of Australia’s bulletin. “It will take some time for the atmosphere to lose all the heat.”

Enhanced Jet Stream

The El Nino effect comes from the creation of an enhanced Pacific jet stream that powers its way across the southern U.S., said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc.

The jet stream, carrying warm, moist air, collides with cold Canadian air to create the storms that have brought record snowfalls to Dallas, Washington and Baltimore, he said prior to the release of Australia’s update.

“That explains this unusually stormy pattern that we’re in and will likely remain for the next few weeks,” Rouiller said.

When El Nino finally collapses, it is likely to bring more severe weather to the U.S., forecasters said. El Nino helps block the formation of Atlantic hurricanes, and when it goes away another obstacle to a more-active season will be removed.

 

[46er]

According to some forecasters, another '2 footer', as they are now calling them, may be in store for next week.

 

[Hewey]

Ugh! When is this white hell going to end? One big storm is nice but this is too much.

Number one reason I never moved back to Vermont is because of the snow. Winters like this remind of the winters we had up there when I was a kid.

We do seem to get hammered in Jersey with snow during El Nino years. On the bright side spring is 31 days away.

Chris

 

[Sue Gremlin]

this snow is working to my advantage, so I am kinda happy about it. My relocation company has asked me to do all kinds of work on the outside of my house in Trenton before March (I moved to Michigan last week), and I really can't because of the feet and feet of snow on the ground. They can't even get on the roof to look at the chimney and under the porch foundation to do an inspection. Fine by me.

 

[JefferyDollars]

According to some forecasters, another '2 footer', as they are now calling them, may be in store for next week.

Um what forecasters r u referring too? Only forecasts I see are for nothing more then snow showers and 40f temps, not very conducisive for "2 footers"......

 

[JefferyDollars]

In fact I see forecasts calling for all rain during the day Monday and a mix Monday night....

 

[Boyd]

Yeah, the forecast has changed over the last couple days.

 

[46er]

Possibly a 2-fer on the way....

 

[Boyd]

Hmm, I hope that is wrong. I don't want to see any more "pretty snow pictures" from you guys. Here's what the National Weather Service says as of this morning:

THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING ON MONDAY, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST OF COURSE BEGINS TO DETERIORATE. THE MODELS HAVE PRIMARY
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE JUST BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA FROM GREENLAND. THAT COLD AND STRONG HIGH MAY WREAK HAVOC
WITH THE FORECAST IN MULTIPLE WAYS AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE SHORT TERM
AND INTO THE LONG TERM. THE FIRST SIGNS OF THIS MAY BE SHOWING UP IN
THE 00Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A SIMPLE MONTAGE OF SNOW, MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW, AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --

THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE LOW FROM THE WEST MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE
DOMINANT LOW TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT MILD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA AT SOME LEVEL. THE ONLY PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THAT MIGHT SEE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTH.
ELSEWHERE, RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR. THE NATURE OF THAT MIX
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM
/ALSO A PRODUCT OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST/ COULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO FORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND TRACKING OF THIS FEATURE
WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHEN OUR AREA GETS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
IF IT DOES OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA, WE COULD SEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF SNOW SINCE COLD AIR WILL HAVE BEEN PULLED INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE TUESDAY STORM. BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL PULL
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO A COLD
WINTERTIME PATTERN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[JefferyDollars]

Possibly a 2-fer on the way....

ok I see, but yea I went to accuweather myself and they hav changed their forecast as well it seems it will just be too warm for a "2footer"

 

[Boyd]

Looks like we will get mostly rain, and lots of it. The sun is starting to fade right now and we may not see it again until the end of the week. With several days of rain plus all the melting snow, I wonder what kind of flooding problems we will see?
_______________________________

From the National Weather Service:

Today: A slight chance of rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 41. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Rain. Low around 35. East wind between 9 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 42. East wind between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: Rain likely before 3am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers before 11pm, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

[JefferyDollars]

Yep! I was doin my rain dance! The rain is gonna come and wash away this mess! Sorry snow lovers you've had your fill, this isnt't New England! Next year will be a snowless winter!

 

[Teegate]

Maybe the weekend will be nice


Guy

 

[Boyd]

Here comes the rain... looks like we could see some flooding. From the National Weather Service... If you do the math, this says we can expect somewhere between 2.5 and 4.25 inches of rain through the end of the weekend. That's a lot of water!

Overnight: A chance of drizzle, then a chance of light rain after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 45. East wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Periods of rain. High near 55. East wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Periods of rain. Low around 48. Breezy, with a east wind between 18 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday: Periods of rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 56. Breezy, with a east wind between 21 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Periods of rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 43. Breezy, with a east wind between 13 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Sunday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

[46er]

Looks like its going to be very wet, time to check the sump pump. Fortunately there is no snow on the ground. Up north is not supposed to see those amounts, with snow still on the ground in Warren and Sussex, it would probably be worse than the flooding of 2006.

The link is for state wide river/stream flow readings. Roll the cursor over the stations or click on them for the current stream/river level data.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nj/nwis/rt


We have a flood watch for the Toms in downtown Toms River and it's still rising. This is an all time record flow for this date, previous was 925cfs in 1962.

 

[Boyd]

Here we go again.... from the National Weather Service. Add it all up and you have the potential for over 5 inches of new rain.
______________________________________________

Sunday: A chance of rain after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Southeast wind between 6 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Periods of rain, mainly after 8pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 50. Southeast wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Monday: Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 61. South wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Monday Night: Periods of rain. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 44. Breezy, with a east wind between 14 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tuesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

[Sue Gremlin]

How much torture is this?! I have a house that floods that I am trying to sell, and I now live 800 miles from that house so I cannot be there to make sure the sump pump is working. If the power goes out, I am screwed. Can someone just buy my house? Please? Anyone? Hellloooooo?

 

[Mts83]

The "Euro" model, which has been very good at predicting precip amounts this far out are supporting a good 4-5" rainfall. Other, American models aren't far behind with similar amounts.

Large sections of woods, yards, and even some roads are still underwater near me.

 

[46er]

How much torture is this?! I have a house that floods that I am trying to sell, and I now live 800 miles from that house so I cannot be there to make sure the sump pump is working. If the power goes out, I am screwed. Can someone just buy my house? Please? Anyone? Hellloooooo?

Sue, If you have it listed with a real estate agent, I'm sure they would check it for you. It's in their best interest. When I had a cabin in upstate NY I installed a water monitor thingy that would phone me and leave a message if water in the sump reached the height of the sensor. I also had a freeze alarm for the heating system. Both ran off battery. I could then call a neighbor up there to check on things. A link to a similar water warning product below. They also have battery operated pumps using car batteries, but only good for a power outage of up to 6-8 hrs.

http://www.freezealert.com/motion-sensor-alarm.htm#Water

 

[turtle]

The "Euro" model, which has been very good at predicting precip amounts this far out are supporting a good 4-5" rainfall. Other, American models aren't far behind with similar amounts.

Large sections of woods, yards, and even some roads are still underwater near me.

...... maybe bobpbx can come and rescue us in his new boat!....... I am not looking forward to more rain. I would rather have snow. There are roads in my area that still have orange cones on them due to flooding. Oh well.

turtle