NOAA 2021 Hurricane Predictions

[Boyd]

Bad news is that it's supposed to be another bad year. Good news is that it shouldn't be as bad as last year though....

NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of...

www.noaa.gov

 

[RednekF350]

A good bad year is always good !

 

[Teegate]

One of these days one of them is really going to zero in on us. We have been doing really well for too long.

 

[Boyd]

Here comes Henri, looks like it will be mostly North of us, but there is disagreement in the different models...

Tropical Storm Henri could impact the Northeastern US this weekend | CNN

Some forecast computer models now show Tropical Storm Henri making landfall in the Northeast. But not all of the models agree, and the official forecast track of Tropical Storm Henri remains offshore. Still, the cone of uncertainty includes parts of New England where, even if Henri doesn't make...

www.cnn.com

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

 

[Boyd]

Based on the updated forecast, we will not get so much rain but could see some pretty high winds...

 

[Boyd]

Not much change to the wind estimate, but now it looks like some of us could get as much as 4 inches of rain.

 

[enormiss]

Planned on Cowtown Rodeo tonight, fingers crossed

 

[Teegate]

Planned on Cowtown Rodeo tonight, fingers crossed

Right now that seems doubtful. Raining here. But I hope you can pull it off.

 

[Boyd]

So far it doesn't look like the rain has hit the Woodstown area yet, but it's raining lightly at my place, with 1 to 2 inches forecast overnight.

I'm trying to reconcile the Nat'l Weather Service forecast of 5 to 10 mph winds with that hurricane graphic that shows probable winds speeds in the 10 to 40 mph range for South Jersey.

 

[Teegate]

Just now

Double

 

[Boyd]

Quite a bit of the pines is in the 4 to 6 inch rain zone on this new map. I am (barely) in the 2 to 4" zone.

 

[Teegate]

We visited the same location today as last week, and the water was visibly lower in puddles and in one pond we walked past. So the levels were dropping but this should change that. Might be tough getting around in some places.

 

[Teegate]

At 6AM we have had 1.05 inches of rain since midnight.

 

[ecampbell]

2.75 inches @ 7 AM

 

[Teegate]

2.75 inches @ 7 AM

Since midnight or since it started raining? Our week starts at midnight Saturday night so it does not display before midnight. I will see if Jessica can bring up last week and we may be able to get last nights total before midnight.

 

[Teegate]

We can't bring up just yesterday. Once the week changes it only shows last weeks totals.

 

[Boyd]

My "rain gage" is my wheelbarrow, not as accurate as yours but the total doesn't change until I manually "reset" it. Dumped it out when I went for a walk yesterday evening around 5:00 PM. Just checked now and was surprised to see we had almost nothing here overnight, looked like about 1/4 iinch total. No wind either, so far it appears that this one has pretty much missed me. Sun is trying to poke through the clouds right now but it's hard to tell if the storm will rotate back through here.

 

[enormiss]

Tailgated a bit before rodeo and stayed till the end, not a drop of rain.
My son said it rained at home while we were gone and it poured for awhile overnight

 

[Boyd]

Nice sunny morning here, but looks like the stuff down in Delaware may be spinning towards us now.

 

[Boyd]

Rainfall totals. Draw a line from Wilmington through Vineland... many locations South of that line (including me) got almost no rain at all. But much of the Pines got from 2 to 6 inches!