NOAA lowers hurricane season prediction

Discussion in 'Nature and the Environment' started by Boyd, Aug 11, 2018.

  1. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    Maybe some good news for NJ? :)

    http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasters-lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction

    Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May, though NOAA and FEMA are raising caution as the season enters its peak months.

    “There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

    Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today.


    noaa.png
     
  2. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Hmmm

    Gary Szatkowski‏ @GarySzatkowski 4h4 hours ago




    Although @NHC_Atlantic forecasts only go out 5 days, @NWSWPC surface map forecasts go out 7 days & will show tropical cyclone positions. This forecast for next Thursday at 8AM EDT shows #Florence (red L) just east of Delmarva. Have a hurricane plan & trusted weather source.pic.twitter.com/moYHrEN672

    [​IMG]
     
  3. 46er

    46er Piney

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  4. imkms

    imkms Explorer

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    Latest spaghetti models, if accurate we should be spared.
    upload_2018-9-7_6-30-58.png
     
    Boyd likes this.
  5. 46er

    46er Piney

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    All stacked up;

    [​IMG]

    Florence next week, pick a line, any line;

    upload_2018-9-7_22-37-6.png
     
  6. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...east-and-mid-atlantic/?utm_term=.bb84e0fdae89

    "We are particularly concerned about the rainfall potential in the Mid-Atlantic. Models have come into agreement that a northward turn before reaching the United States is unlikely and that a building high-pressure zone north of the storm will cause it to slow or stall once it reaches the coast or shortly thereafter.

    Florence could sit over some part of the Mid-Atlantic for several days, similar to what Harvey did last year over eastern Texas. It has the potential to dump unthinkable amounts of rain over a large area in the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps into the Northeast. Rainfall could begin Friday or Saturday and continue into the following week."
     
  7. bobpbx

    bobpbx Piney
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    Thank God I live on top of sand.
     
  8. 46er

    46er Piney

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    From Mt Holly NWS;

    https://twitter.com/NWS_MountHolly

     
  9. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    You would never know a storm is coming based on the current forecast. Perhaps it will change to "unhinkable amounts of rain over a large area in the Mid-Atlantic" later in the week? ;)

    Friday
    A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Friday Night
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Saturday
    A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Saturday Night
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Sunday
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Sunday Night
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Monday
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
     
  10. 46er

    46er Piney

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    You mean a possible storm, right. Not to be critical, but it's the NWS, i.e. National Whatever Service. ;) They did help get Sandy wrong.

    I have a friend that was in Maine on vacation, changed his departure and is in the air now. His home is about 10 miles from the very flat coast in SE NC. Based on what happened here, I suggested he book a hotel room somewhere in GA. He is going to need a lot of luck.

    Luck just ran out. His hop into Wilmington just got cancelled. Lots of T'storms already forming down there.
     
    #10 46er, Sep 11, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018
  11. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    Forecast has actually improved since yesterday. If they're right, we might have a nice weekend...

    Saturday
    A chance of drizzle or light rain before 11am, then a chance of showers after 11am. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Saturday Night
    Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

    Sunday
    Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

    Sunday Night
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Monday
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Monday Night
    A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


    rainfall.png
     
  12. 46er

    46er Piney

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    The forecast for Florence has shifted to the west, we are out of the picture unless the depression part loops back or until it shifts again. :worms:

    From the ISS, have no clue whose nose that is in the upper left;

     
  13. Teegate

    Teegate Administrator
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  14. 46er

    46er Piney

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  15. Teegate

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  16. 46er

    46er Piney

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