Real Estate

[Boyd]

I don't follow the real estate market since I'm quite happy here and have no interest in selling. But with all the news about real estate recently, I had a look at Zillow just for fun. Holy sh***! My house value has gone up 35% in less than a year. That is just crazy. The bottom fell out of the market here when Atlantic City went bust, my house lost 1/3 of its value and didn't change for years. If this continues, soon I'll be back to what I paid in 2006, which was practically the peak of the housing boom.

Looking at the big picture, this raises concerns about over-development in the Pines. What do you think? Are we on the cusp of a big development boom in the Pines?

 

[enormiss]

I don't really follow around here but have been looking for land in east TN. There seems to be much less available now than a year ago

 

[Teegate]

There is a house across the street from me that just went up for sale during the week. For the past 4 days cars have been lining the street and standing in line 6 feet apart to get in, even with appointments. I guess with mortgage rates going down everyone is out to get a home.

 

[dragoncjo]

There is massive inflation caused be fed and wealth effect of stock market. Combine all that with many people now leaving the cities and a lack of inventory and you have skyrocketing prices. I believe it’s temporary and will normalize over time. We will likely see a massive stock market crash over the next few years when interest rates are forced to rise so inflation doesn’t get too severe.

 

[SpinyPiney]

It is crazy right now. We’re getting ready to put our house on the market. I bought my house in 2010 and will walk away with close to six figures if it sells only for asking. The realtor said every house she’s listed in the last 3-4 months has gone for 5-10% over asking and is selling in days and I believe it. We’ve tried looking at a few houses and they are going under contract before we can even get an appointment to see them. The only house we’ve been able to get an appointment for in the last month needs a new septic system and even that one had an offer but were looking for backups. My friend and his fiancé each sold their houses in 4 days and both got over asking. My brother’s house in Philly just went under contract last week. They had 7 offers in the 2 days it was on the market. We’re going to rent for a bit if we don’t find the right house right away or until the market hopefully cools a little or my wife finds a comparable paying job out of state. The only reason we’re not opposed to buying with prices so high is that money is so cheap right now and we’ll have a sizable down payment. I know waiting could be a big gamble if prices keep going up for the next few years but I feel like a lot of people are getting in over their heads right now because they’re in a frenzy and are either going to regret or not be able to afford their decisions here shortly. The mortgage industry learned nothing from 2008. They’re still giving out loans they know aren’t sustainable for the buyers. We were pre-approved for $500k which is insane considering the portion of our monthly income that would be. My brother just bought a $450k house which was the top of what they were comfortable with monthly but were approved for almost $800k.

 

[dragoncjo]

It’s one of the more interesting time periods I’ve witnessed in all my years of watching financial markets. There was obviously a huge migration back to cities over the last 10 years or so. That is now reversing and people are moving back out of cities but it’s happening at warp speed. Millenials who left suburbs are now coming back as they begin raising families. Areas like medford which had people leaving in droves now seem very attractive. Remote work has made this all possible but is that permanent? I doubt it. My fear is a ramp up in housing in more rural areas of south Jersey. The only reason it doesn’t happen is lumber has become so expensive. We 100% are working our way back to a 2008 scenario. Human behavior much like animal behavior is very predictable. We are repeating everything we did prior to 2008. There is going to be a lot of pain down the road sadly.

 

[Boyd]

The mortgage industry learned nothing from 2008. They’re still giving out loans they know aren’t sustainable for the buyers.

I sold a home in Medford Lakes in 2004 and the buyer wanted to do it with no money down. In fact, they even balked at putting down a $500 deposit but my attorney and I held firm on that. We didn't think they would pull it off, but they did. And the kicker was... the buyer worked for a mortgage lender!

 

[bobpbx]

Don't think this is all families extending themselves to buy these homes. Many are investment companies and pension funds.

 

[Boyd]

No doubt. When house prices rise 35% in less than a year, people are going to start "flipping".

 

[imkms]

 

[SpinyPiney]

View attachment 15425

I’ve been looking at a lot of listings lately. I think I could write the perfect description for that place.



Attention empty nesters! Looking to downsize? Come take a look at this adorable single family home in an established neighborhood. Nature abounds around this cozy home surrounded by mature landscaping. With a maintenance-free exterior and roof that will out last the human race you’ll have nothing to do but add your personal touches and relax. Make your appointment today! This one won’t last long!

 

[SpinyPiney]

There is going to be a lot of pain down the road sadly.

Pain for some will be good news for others. We originally started looking around ‘05 when prices were ridiculous. We were frustrated, mad and had almost given up hope on finding a single family home with a yard. Almost ended up buying a condo but in time were glad we waited. Our neighbors bought in ‘07, we bought in ‘10 and paid $50k less for a bigger house with a bigger yard. They sold last January for $25k less than they paid before things heated up and barely broke even. Actually, with all the repairs they did before putting it on the market they might have lost money. It’s all about timing, your individual situation and luck really.

 

[Boyd]

The bottom fell out of the market here when Atlantic City went bust, my house lost 1/3 of its value and didn't change for years. If this continues, soon I'll be back to what I paid in 2006

Just checked again and Zillow says the value of my house has risen 7% in the last 30 days. Almost back to what I originally paid before the Atlantic City bust, never thought I would see that happen - certainly not this fast. Wonder how high it will go? This market is just insane.

Meanwhile, in Astoria NY, my daughter's landlord was going to sell her building and they were going to have to look for a new place. Well, the landlord decided not to sell because the market is so weak there. Instead of moving, the landlord offered them another apartment in the same building, so he could renovate the old one. The other apartment is the same size and newly-renovated. But it's rent-controlled, so they will pay $400 less per month in rent. Two different worlds...

 

[manumuskin]

Could it be real estate isn't going up but the dollar is going down?>

 

[Boyd]

Not nearly that much Al. Current annual inflation rate is about 5% per year, not 7% per month. That would be more than 80% per year!

 

[this_is_nascar]

Cash in now if you must. It's only a matter of time that everything will be going into the sh*tter and the bottom will fall out.

Unfortunately, I don't think it will be in the too distant future.

 

[Boyd]

The doom and gloom predictions have been around for a long time and they still haven't come true. We had that brief market crash at the beginning of the pandemic but it didn't last. No plan to sell my home, I just find the phenomenon fascinating. And you have to live somewhere, so selling at the top of the market only to buy at the top doesn't help much. However, the move from the cities to rural areas looks like the real thing and I'd be surprised to see that change.

 

[bobpbx]

Cash in now if you must. It's only a matter of time that everything will be going into the sh*tter and the bottom will fall out.

Unfortunately, I don't think it will be in the too distant future.

Really? Why do you think that is?

 

[this_is_nascar]

Really? Why do you think that is?

The direction the economy is quickly going. Having your property valued at well more than it's worth, without people having the funds to purchase it, due to rising costs and inflation, doesn't make for a good scenario.

I guess no one recalls the housing crisis from not too long ago. How many homes and properties are still abandoned, because people paid much more than what they were worth when prices fell out.

I'm certainly no expert and I have no dog in this race, but I will be impacted by the failing economy. That's my immediate concern.

 

[c1nj]

I have noticed many price drops Zillow.