The Shore's Future

Teegate

Administrator
Site Administrator
Sep 17, 2002
25,511
8,061
I have a different opinion than the mayor. He says:

"New Jersey would be just another state without the Shore," says Long Beach Township Mayor Joseph Mancini, a dune proponent and barrier island native, whose father served as mayor for four decades.


I say:

"New Jersey would be just another state without the Pine Barrens,"


Guy
 

bobpbx

Piney
Staff member
Oct 25, 2002
14,102
4,202
Pines; Bamber area
Yes, imagine wall-to-wall levitown-like suburbs all the way up to the shore. How nice would the shore be then with all that easy access?
 

Boyd

Administrator
Staff member
Site Administrator
Jul 31, 2004
9,459
2,721
Ben's Branch, Stephen Creek
I think the whole premise is wrong. Every state is "just another state". They all have unique features and special places. But this is what I took away from that article

The beaches and dunes would need to be replenished every three to seven years, depending on how fast the sand erodes, according to the Army Corps.

"How long do you think they can keep that going?" asks Dillingham of the Littoral Society. "The sea wants to keep pushing back in. In the end, it's not a fight we are going to win."

This is a difficult issue with emotions running high from the devastation of Sandy. But we are all subsidizing those expensive shore homes with flood insurance and disaster relief programs.
 
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MarkBNJ

Piney
Jun 17, 2007
1,875
73
Long Valley, NJ
www.markbetz.net
Building on those barrier islands was always a little nuts, and the fact that we have more or less gotten away with it for 150 years doesn't mean much. Sandy was a devastating storm, but it was nowhere near the worst that can happen. The worst that can happen will move inlets, make new ones, generally rearrange the geography of those sandbars. It will eventually happen.
 
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amf

Explorer
May 20, 2006
152
45
Swedesboro
.... The worst that can happen will move inlets, make new ones, generally rearrange the geography of those sandbars. It will eventually happen.

I believe Sandy did that, we just filled them back in! I always find it amazing to look at the Virginia barrier islands - one of the few stretches on the Atlantic seaboard that have been, for the most part, let be - and see how the landscape changes over time.
 

46er

Piney
Mar 24, 2004
8,837
2,142
Coastal NJ
Sandy was bad but not the worst. Not by a long shot.

It depends on where you refer to. According to the Goddard Institute, it was a 700 year storm. It's path was the really rare part of it. Going by tide/moon effect, it calculates by Columbia U to a 103 year storm. A partial quote from NOAA's synopsis;

Sandy’s storm surge, in addition to large and battering waves, devastated large portions

of the coasts of New Jersey and New York. In fact, the extent of catastrophic damage along the

New Jersey coast was unprecedented in the state’s history, with the brunt of it occurring in

Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Whole communities were inundated by water and sand, houses

were washed from their foundations, boardwalks were dismantled or destroyed, cars were tossed

about, and boats were pushed well inland from the coast.

The entire synopsis here;

www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf

A good 100 yr flood map and the results of Sandy comparison;

https://project.wnyc.org/100yr-flood-ny/embed.html#9.00/39.4267/-73.4134
 
Last edited:

RednekF350

Piney
Feb 20, 2004
4,935
3,041
Pestletown, N.J.
Wow! Sandy's flooding was not on the Major Flood level? I thought for sure it was a 100 year flood level...interesting.

I am a licensed land surveyor and I worked on several post-Sandy projects over the last few years preparing Elevation Certificates for damaged properties that were going to be rebuilt.

Immediately after Sandy, our professional association hosted a seminar with FEMA reps; specifically to discuss the early release of the new FEMA Advisory Base Flood Elevations (ABFE). The release was not scheduled for another year or so after that but they were trying to be prudent and issue their preliminary data for the imminent explosion of reconstructions. Since 2013 there have been multiple adjustments in the ABFE for New Jersey communities. A lot of the adjustments have only been to remove the V zone designation from some properties. A V zone indicates that the property is subject to the 1% chance annual flood and additional damage from wave action.

The first thing the FEMA reps told us was that Sandy did not attain the 1% annual chance elevations in most areas along the NJ coast. In areas that I worked in post-Sandy, houses that flooded and that were severely and permanently damaged were damaged by water that reached levels 2' lower than the published 1% levels.

It would take hours to fully document what I am saying but here is a quick technical article on the elevations attained around the Mantoloking Bridge washout. Most elevations were below the 1% levels.
http://www.nj.gov/dep/shoreprotection/docs/ibsp-barnegat-bay-storm-surge-elevations-during-sandy.pdf
 

46er

Piney
Mar 24, 2004
8,837
2,142
Coastal NJ
It would take hours to fully document what I am saying but here is a quick technical article on the elevations attained around the Mantoloking Bridge washout. Most elevations were below the 1% levels.

That washout was the result of dune blowout and has happened to a much lesser extent before. There were several blowouts along the Manasquan to Barnegat Inlet stretch, the most severe, with the most destruction being the Ortley Beach area. Lunar high tides and storm driven waves were the main contributors. The tip of LBI, Holgate, was a complete over-wash, just about where the storm came ashore. What was left was an amazing thing to see. Somewhere on the net are aerial shots of the entire coast right after the storm. You won't find many folks around here that would listen to anything FEMA has to say, they did a similar stellar job here as they did in NOLA, perhaps worse.
 
Feb 1, 2016
273
133
53
Camden County, NJ
I am a licensed land surveyor and I worked on several post-Sandy projects over the last few years preparing Elevation Certificates for damaged properties that were going to be rebuilt.

Immediately after Sandy, our professional association hosted a seminar with FEMA reps; specifically to discuss the early release of the new FEMA Advisory Base Flood Elevations (ABFE). The release was not scheduled for another year or so after that but they were trying to be prudent and issue their preliminary data for the imminent explosion of reconstructions. Since 2013 there have been multiple adjustments in the ABFE for New Jersey communities. A lot of the adjustments have only been to remove the V zone designation from some properties. A V zone indicates that the property is subject to the 1% chance annual flood and additional damage from wave action.

The first thing the FEMA reps told us was that Sandy did not attain the 1% annual chance elevations in most areas along the NJ coast. In areas that I worked in post-Sandy, houses that flooded and that were severely and permanently damaged were damaged by water that reached levels 2' lower than the published 1% levels.

It would take hours to fully document what I am saying but here is a quick technical article on the elevations attained around the Mantoloking Bridge washout. Most elevations were below the 1% levels.
http://www.nj.gov/dep/shoreprotection/docs/ibsp-barnegat-bay-storm-surge-elevations-during-sandy.pdf
Fantastic info. Thank you!
 

Trailwalker

Scout
Sep 5, 2023
37
25
(ex-piney) in Florida
Agreed. Sandy's flood elevations didn't even reach calculated 100 year (1% annual chance) flood elevations in most areas.
speaking of which, I am very interested in the history of the Cranberry Inlet to the Toms River. Does anyone here have information as to how it closed up and details on Mr. Ortley's efforts to open it back up?
 
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