Drought coming?

[46er]

Not looking good so far this year. Some showers perhaps next week, but nothing substantial enough to make a difference.

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=dryw

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj

 

[dogg57]

I believe its all ready beginning

 

[dragoncjo]

I think its going to be bad. I was down in deep south jersey yesterday and I was shocked by how dry it was. I don't even think amphibian breeding could occur in some spots this year and the species that load up on food in march,april, may then go aestivate during the heat may be impacted bad. I looked ahead on the 10 day and no rain in sight, but at least temps aren't overly warm to dry it out further. Might be a dicey fire season this year.

 

[dogg57]

I think the one that will help us is these freak storms. It is going to do want it wants to do so.....

 

[Boyd]

You could be right about a drought, not much chance of rain in the current NWS forecast for next week but this often changes. For the most part, we seem to have returned to more typical seasonal temperatures. But there's been a long streak of windy days (red flag warning today). That is going to dry things out even more, and of course there is also the concern about forest fires.

But I guess the old saying still applies, "everybody complains about the weather but nobody ever does anything about it".

 

[46er]

But there's been a long streak of windy days (red flag warning today). That is going to dry things out even more, and of course there is also the concern about forest fires.

I was out at Gen Doyle Cemetery this morning and the wind on the ride home was fierce. Big dust storm from the farm fields around Colliers Mills. Wind forecast looks pretty much the same thru next week with warmer temps on the way.

 

[piker56]

I posted earlier about the Winslow fire. The swamps are as dry as as I've seen them in years. Dry weather has meant less bugs in the woods in the past, but also greatly increases the chance of fire. I think I'd rather see some rain.
Greg

 

[woodjin]

droughts are good for fishing though

 

[dogg57]

“Our numbers indicate that we’re one match away from Armageddon,” Assistant Division Warden Bill Donnelly said. “Right now, throughout the state, probably some of the most severe conditions are here in the southern part of the state.”
All of New Jersey is officially considered abnormally dry, according to the National Drought Monitor, and the effects on South Jersey already have been significant. Forest fire crews are working 9-hour shifts instead of mostly working on an on-call basis. Farmers growing certain crops have begun irrigating much earlier than usual. And open burning in wooded areas is banned unless the fire is on an elevated fireplace.
“I think this last week’s dryness and continued dessication, if you will, has kind of tipped us over (to drought),” said David Robinson, state climatologist and professor at Rutgers University..........Maybe someone knows of a good rain dance

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/...cle_b91b3dbc-8366-11e1-bae1-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[Boyd]

It has actually been raining a bit here today. Not much, but I saw water coming from the sky for the first time in awhile.

 

[ecampbell]

The surface is certainly dry and crunchy but the Skit and Batsto rivers at Hampton Park are flowing well as of this morning. The water is clear, not deep but no exposed sand at the canoe launch. In the summer it is too shallow to paddle, but not now. I have been digging post holes on my property, a 148 foot gravel mountain, and the dirt I bring up is damp from surface to 4 feet.

Batsto camp went fron stage 2 yesterday to stage 3 today.

 

[Boyd]

My porch thermometer reads 92 degrees in the shade right now. I wonder if it will go off the scale when we get to July? Only the slightest chance for rain this week, but will be much cooler on Wednesday. Walking down by the creek yesterday, the water levels have certainly dropped but are still pretty decent. I was thinking that the only reason for this might be the fact that the trees have very few leaves yet. When the summer comes, I think they suck a lot of water out of the ground.

Anyway, I hope you get a chance to enjoy this hot spell while it lasts.

 

[this_is_nascar]

Funny you mention the tree leaves. Just overnight, many of my trees went from buds to full leaves sprouting. Pretty amazing actually.

 

[Boyd]

Yes, the warm day definitely had an effect. But there isn't anywhere near the amount of foliage we will have later. Most of the low groundcover is still bare and not much sign of life at all on the oak trees.

 

[PINEY MIKE]

Went on a fly fishing trip on the Big Flatbrook last weekend in NW Jersey and the river was just trickling. The trout were holding in only a few of the deeper pools and they were filled shoulder to shoulder with bait fishermen.. not my type of trip to the woods. I usually have to worry about the rivers being too high this time of year. I hate to see what August looks like if the rain dont come. As if that wasn't bad enough, the private campground I usually stay at had a campfire ban as well. Time for some rain dances.

 

[46er]

This map keeps getting worserer and worserer, red is extreme drought, brown is severe, orange is moderate. Tan is below normal. I think this is the warmest & dryest April I can remember, we broke 90f yesterday. Supposed to get back into the 60's, but serious rain is no where in site.

Mike, the West Branch is doing pretty well. If it stays that way I'll be making a trip in mid-June, black flies be damned. I might try a couple of WTS up along the Delaware before then.

 

[Boyd]

At least there's some chance of rain later in the week. 50% is better odds than we have seen for awhile...

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

[PINEY MIKE]

Mike, the West Branch is doing pretty well. If it stays that way I'll be making a trip in mid-June, black flies be damned. I might try a couple of WTS up along the Delaware before then.

I was going to ride the Harley up in early June during bike week up there and bring a rod or two, but I got to thinking how bad the bugs would be on the bike alone, so Im still up in the air. Best of luck if you head up. I have a friend who guides up there and he usually sends me an e mail when the fishing heats up. As Boyd mentioned, theres rain in the forecast for next week, but who knows how much we'll get.

 

[Boyd]

The odds are improving... now 60%

Saturday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

[dragoncjo]

We need rain but why the weekends, hah.....but no seriously its getting bad out there the trails in the barrens are like a dust bowl. Lots of the ditches that are normally full are bone dry....personally I've never seen it this bad.