Fireworks for the 4th?
- Thread starter 46er
- Start date
I'm hoping to observe the Beach Haven fireworks with my kids from my boat in the bay. Hope forecast changes. 
Still early, but not looking good for the 4th
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours. The main area of
deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
enhanced infrared images. Surface observations and Doppler radar
velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
and the current intensity is held at 30 kt. This is also in
agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.
There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
260/2. The overall steering scenario seems relatively
straightforward. A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days. This
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed later in the forecast period. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.
Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast
period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
extratropical transition.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours. The main area of
deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
enhanced infrared images. Surface observations and Doppler radar
velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
and the current intensity is held at 30 kt. This is also in
agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.
There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
260/2. The overall steering scenario seems relatively
straightforward. A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days. This
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed later in the forecast period. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.
Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast
period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
extratropical transition.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
523 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
523 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
with the cold spring we've had I can't imagine the ocean temp being warm enough to power a good hurricane up here anyway.
You'd be surprised.
Our weather has a minimal impact on sea temps, it's the other way around. One example is El Nino.http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_...MAB/sst/noaa/2014/img/140702.183.1007.n18.jpg
I know that hurricanes are the earths way of cooling the oceans down hence they start in the tropics and work their way up the Gulf Stream but when they cross over into our Labrador current that usually kills them and they clobber us with their dieing gasps