Nor’easter expected

[dogg57]

Get ready for a nor’easter on Thursday and Friday that could spawn moderate coastal flooding in New Jersey, according to the National Weather Service.
Superstorm Sandy left many areas vulnerable to more flooding and damage, experts told me following the catastrophic storm.
Here are some of the key points in a 4:30 p.m. briefing package from the National Weather Service Mount Holly office:
- A nor’easter is expected to affect the region from Thursday night into Friday night.
- Storm threats include snow, coastal flooding and wind.
- Up to 4 inches of snow is possible, with the highest amounts in the Poconos and northern New Jersey.
- Minor coastal flooding is likely along New Jersey’s Atlantic coast and moderate coastal flooding is possible.
http://blogs.app.com/enviroguy/2013...ed-moderate-coastal-flooding-possible-in-n-j/

 

[46er]

If the forecast holds, the winds will be offshore minimizing any flooding. I was over the beach today and things look pretty good. At the spots I stopped there are large offshore sandbars and workers have built up those areas and dunes the Oct storm took out. Up north will get clobbered regardless.

 

[rjb]

Tri-State Weather is saying some models show up to 8 inches of snow down to Barnegat and 17 inches in the Cherry Hill area. Other models say coastal NJ will be mostly a rain event.

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/tristateweather

 

[46er]

Tri-State Weather is saying some models show up to 8 inches of snow down to Barnegat and 17 inches in the Cherry Hill area. Other models say coastal NJ will be mostly a rain event.

I'd have to agree with the rain forecast, but it all depends

A couple of the models are indicating that for NH and coastal ME, snow amounts could reach 53 to 77 inches, blowing out the numbers from the Blizzard of 1993 which occurred on the same dates.

 

[Boyd]

Doesn't sound so bad for most of us at this point. I hope the winds don't take out any more of my cedars, all the storms over the past year have been rough on them.

DEZ002>004-NJZ020>027-072130-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
417 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

 

[46er]

Probabilities for measurable snow going up and creeping south.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/w...24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities

 

[Boyd]

Quite a colorful map for our region...

 

[Boyd]

What is this on the Dover radar east of Chincoteague - a UFO?

Not sure if this link will work, but it's a loop showing that ellipse rotating. Weird...

http://radblast-aws.wunderground.co...ls=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

Here's a closer animated view:

http://radblast-aws.wunderground.co...ls=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

 

[46er]

A rotating circle of lights? They have come back!!!

http://www.stangordon.info/wp/2012/04/04/circle-of-spinning-lights-reported/

I think NOAA launches missles and weather balloons down that way from Wallops Island.

 

[Gibby]

What is this on the Dover radar east of Chincoteague - a UFO?

It could be a roost ring following the front or a convection echo.

If it isn't a cumulus field then we should wear our foil hats. Run away!

 

[46er]

It could be a roost ring following the front or a convection echo.
Run away!

AhHA. Boyd found the missing Wenonah buzzards

 

[Boyd]

I think the major axis of that ellipse is 30 miles or so. Would birds make such a big circle? Those links above don't work (they show the current loop evidently) but I was able to download some of the old data and put this together. Strange...

 

[Gibby]

I suppose some of the rings can be huge. We all have seen a large line of birds migrating in the fall, so that is some basis for the size potential. I don't know enough about shore birds to even guess at what species the ring could be.

NOAA has some animated bursts and rings.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/research/birds/index.php

 

[46er]

I doubt it is birds, nothing migrating now, and that is pretty far offshore anyway. Probably just some precip.

An excellent link about birds and radar, by the person that pioneered its use for such.

http://www.woodcreeper.com/

Reports are now calling for up to 8" locally for us, with the potential of that being updated higher, depending where the merge occurs. All late tomorrow night/early morning.

We'll be going snowshoeing Sunday up around High Point SP

 

[Boyd]

Reports are now calling for up to 8" locally for us, with the potential of that being updated higher

NWS says 1-3" for me, 2-4" for Chatsworth, 2-4" for Medford, 3-5" for Pemberton. At this point it doesn't seem like this will be all that big of an event for the Pines (famous last words?...).

 

[46er]

The ante has been upped for the coastal areas, NYC and NE of there. These poor folks can't catch a break. No one will know the totals till its over.

Its a pretty big storm at this point, even larger when the 2 are totally combined. Another one right behind this one.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

 

[this_is_nascar]

As far as I'm concerned, even an inch is too much at this point. Let it be rain and where the hell is spring anyway?

 

[46er]

As far as I'm concerned, even an inch is too much at this point. Let it be rain and where the hell is spring anyway?

We are now down to 1-3" forecasted. The way it looks to me, it'll be closer to the 1" Lots, and I mean lots, of rain though. If it were colder, they may have been right.

 

[Boyd]

Lots of rain here too, about 2" so far. Heading out right now to see how high the creek has risen. Atlantic City is really getting pounded, about 6" rain there so far. Here are the storm totals from Dover radar (DOX), for some reason Philadelphia radar (DIX) doesn't have these, guess it was down for awhile.

 

[Teegate]

I may have accidentally deleted a few posts here. It may have been three of them or so.