That forecast was totally wrong, we didn't get any new snow at all since yesterday morning.
Snow
- Thread starter dogg57
- Start date
That forecast was totally wrong, we didn't get any new snow at all since yesterday morning.
Was watching that storm on radar, and there were some very long, narrow bands of snow - it looked unusual. I can understand how it would be hard to predict exactly where they drop snow.
Anyway, I'm happy that I didn't get the 11" worst case in the forecast. 3 to 4 inches is plenty.
Anyway, I'm happy that I didn't get the 11" worst case in the forecast. 3 to 4 inches is plenty.
Even their totals are wrong, which is something that actually happened, not forecasted. Maybe their spotters were asleep. Note the 'we don't really know if its accurate or not' message on the bottom. We still have snow cover on the ground, streets are clear. Has not been above freezing yet today.
Just got back from a walk in the woods, and the 2.5" number shown on that map is about right for me. There was over 3" on my car when I cleared it yesterday morning, but now it has settled and there is certainly less than 3" on the ground out in the woods.
Here comes the next one....
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
402 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey and southern New
Jersey.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
For Saturday and Sunday, a significant winter storm is probable,
however the details including precipitation types and impacts are
less certain at this time. A flash freeze is possible Sunday
afternoon and night as arctic air pours into the area.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
402 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey and southern New
Jersey.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
For Saturday and Sunday, a significant winter storm is probable,
however the details including precipitation types and impacts are
less certain at this time. A flash freeze is possible Sunday
afternoon and night as arctic air pours into the area.
Yep; get the firewood in, the long-johns washed and the genset tested 
Aimed right at us.
Aimed right at us.
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Going through plenty of firewood already, it was still only 19 degrees here at 9:00 AM.
If the stuff I am reading happens, that will seem downright warm.
My annual contribution around this time
https://www.outsideonline.com/2152131/freezing-death
Well, I believe the storm is expected on Saturday into Sunday, and current forecasts suggest rain with temperatures in the mid 40's Saturday rising to around 50 Sunday. Then we will get the flash freeze Sunday night, so everything will be a sheet of ice Monday. 
Yep, does not look like any white fluffy stuff for us, maybe not even any ice. North Jersey may get both. These extreme projections rarely pan out. We shall see.
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwp...24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey and southern New
Jersey.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
A significant storm system will move across the region late Saturday
through Sunday. While precipitation in this area looks to fall
mainly as rain, there could be a brief period of snow at the onset
Saturday evening. Heavy rain will then follow by overnight Saturday
night into Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy enough to lead to
flooding.
Rain will come to an end by late day Sunday as a strong cold front
moves through with strong NW winds and rapidly falling temperatures
as arctic air rapidly moves in. This will lead to quick refreezing
of wet surfaces causing very ice conditions.
Dangerous wind chills Sunday night through Tuesday.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey and southern New
Jersey.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
A significant storm system will move across the region late Saturday
through Sunday. While precipitation in this area looks to fall
mainly as rain, there could be a brief period of snow at the onset
Saturday evening. Heavy rain will then follow by overnight Saturday
night into Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy enough to lead to
flooding.
Rain will come to an end by late day Sunday as a strong cold front
moves through with strong NW winds and rapidly falling temperatures
as arctic air rapidly moves in. This will lead to quick refreezing
of wet surfaces causing very ice conditions.
Dangerous wind chills Sunday night through Tuesday.
Very cold beginning Sunday night thru Tuesday. These are air temps, not wind chill.
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/minloop.html
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/minloop.html
"wet stuff is coming, we don't know what type it will be".
That should be their new forecasting announcement. It was not supposed to snow here last night, so I did not put the car away. I got almost an inch on it now.
That should be their new forecasting announcement. It was not supposed to snow here last night, so I did not put the car away. I got almost an inch on it now.
They've done it again. The Weather Company, i.e. IBM, has blown Intellicast out of the water; has it intertwined with Weather Underground. No announcement, just a morning surprise for some now angry folks on the eve of a significant weather event. Tsk, tsk, tsk; timing is everything.
We received a dusting that is quickly melting.
We received a dusting that is quickly melting.
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