Hurricane

[Teegate]

It appears they have changed the forcast and it will slam into Cape May directly. However, maybe tomorrow it won't.

http://blogs.app.com/capitolquickie...orecast-direct-hit-on-n-j-by-hurricane-irene/

 

[dogg57]

Nice.Thanks for the update Guy

 

[Teegate]

This seems pretty good.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26295161/ns/weather/#.TlRDh3MUzBQ

Guy

 

[Gibby]

I can't even begin to imagine the beach erosion that is going to occur let alone the damage to the shore communities. The growth along the coastline has been drastic in the last few decades. When was the last time that New Jersey was hit by a hurricane with some weight behind it?

 

[Teegate]

I remember one sometime in the 1977 to 1982 time frame that hit pretty hard.

Guy

 

[Boyd]

Time to test the generator and fill up the gas cans...

I am on the edge of the 20-30% probability zone for hurricane force winds. Rest of NJ is in the 10-20% zone. This could bring down a lot of trees.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4 shtml/205313.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

 

[46er]

My oldest son is in the Outer Banks. Folks there are preparing, they learned very nasty stuff can happen with the last one that hit them. With the exception of the National Seashore, it is as built up as the Jersey shore. Thursday will probably tell the tale and be time to pull the boat.

This is a pretty good tracking map as it can show the various models together. Just fill in the blanks on the right. For Irene, the forecast models are all very close.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/interactive-tracker.asp?partner=accuweather

In just a few months we'll be back to snow

 

[Boyd]

C'mon.... it's still August.

 

[46er]

No worries, I preordered a new snowblower. We won't see a flake

Irene looks to be turning east, no landfall in NJ on the latest forecast.

 

[Teegate]

No worries, I preordered a new snowblower. We won't see a flake

Irene looks to be turning east, no landfall in NJ on the latest forecast.

In any event, this shows there will be 100MPH winds in our area. With the storm not directly hitting land it has nothing to slow the wind down. I suspect that unless it turns more, many people will have some sort of damage.

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/hurricane.tracker/?hpt=hp_c1

Guy

 

[Teegate]

Quote: Some computer models suggest New York or New Jersey could be hit.

 

[manumuskin]

it looks as if the track is now moving slightly east and putting the eye 40 or 50 mi offshore.This still puts us smack in the crap and on the bad side of the storm.If we're gonna get nailed it would be cool to see the eye of the storm go over.I just measured the beast on Google earth.It's over 500 mi across total while the main bulk no counting the swirl is about 260 mi across,meanwhile the eye is 12.4 mi. across.Wonder how long that would take to cross a given spot? a half hour?
Al

 

[Gibby]

The latest report states that the hurricane is moving Northwest at twelve miles an hour. The eye would take atleast an hour to travel over a given spot.

 

[46er]

What to expect if it stays on its present course, which it pobably won't, at the link. The Cape May-Lewes ferry has already cancelled sailings beginning Saturday evening.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/54200/irene-impacts-from-nc-to-maine.asp

 

[Boyd]

Aside from the hurricane, there is quite a bit of rain in the forecast over the next few days - add it up and we could have 4 or 5 inches before the hurricane even arrives.

NWS Philadelphia, PA

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Southeast wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

 

[imkms]

One of my favorite hurricane tracking sites. The options in the top right corner of the screen offer a lot of detail.

http://www.hwn.org/stormpulse_atlantic.html

 

[Hewey]

Living 6 miles as a crow flys from the ocean, this has me nervous. I had some real bad damage from straight line wind back in July of 2008. The wind looks like it is going to be stronger with this storm. I am not looking forward to this.

Chris

 

[Boyd]

Yeah, this could be a rough weekend ahead. Two years ago when there was widespread flooding in the area, my home fared very well so that's encouraging at least. But I can't even imagine how many trees might get knocked down and how the power and roads might be affected. Am stocking up on a few last minute items today.

Why is it that every year I end up tearing down the engine on my generator just to get it working? Oh well, it's all back together now and running good. Guess I've done about all I can at this point, and now we just have to hope for the best.

 

[46er]

Unfortunately, the track did change. The forecast has moved even further west which puts us on the coast in a nasty situation. I just finished hooking up the sump pump, probably will go get another one. And can't forget the bread, eggs and milk. At least it will be getting to us in the daylight. From Cape May north along the coast will probably see the worst of it, if the forecast holds.

 

[dogg57]

Not much you can do to change it