Jose, Maria

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by 46er, Aug 25, 2017.

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  1. old jersey girl

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    Read "Condominium" a novel by John D. MacDonald published 1977. Best description ever written of 1) what hurricane wind/storm surge does 2) Florida barrier island ecology 3) how shoddy construction can bypass building code 4) history of greed-based developement fostering coastal construction. Story includes a detailed view from an engineering perspective of how concrete foundations piers often were built to fail under surge load.

    John D MacDonald was one of the major opponents of developements affecting the Everglades.

    There are few highrises along the Cape May county coastline, but similar history of massive developement .
     
  2. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Watching the destruction from Irma in the Keys of FL; reports are saying 25% of all homes in the keys are gone. Seeing these images it is also pretty obvious, at least to me, that a goodly number of those gone will probably be mobile homes. Powerful stuff.
     
  3. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    For awhile it looked like this was turning away, but just heard a report on CNN that there's a possibility it could hit NYC as a category 1 or tropical storm....

    145928_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
     
  4. 46er

    46er Piney

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    #24 46er, Sep 15, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
  5. smoke_jumper

    smoke_jumper Piney

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    I've been watching it. The models keep pushing it closer to us. If the high pressure that set up in the north is strong enough it could make landfall on Long Island.
     
  6. 46er

    46er Piney

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    #26 46er, Sep 15, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017
  7. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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  8. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    Today's version shows limited impact on NJ. They also removed the language about tropical storm conditions from the Tuesday NWS forecast and it now just mentions a "chance of showers" with 1/10 to 1/4 inch possible.

    145546_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
     
  9. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Possible that Maria may become a concern heading into Oct.

    - NHC

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    The NWS really can't make up their minds, now this is showing on their website. If you click on the ( i ) button, it just says "Tropical Storm Warning until further notice". WTF does that mean? Notice how they capitalized NOW... Is it coming tonight? :siren:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.62420625477718&lat=39.71546373406045#.Wb74Eq2ZPog

    storm.png
     
  11. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Stick with the NHC, it's all they do. TS watch from Cape Cod to MD.

    Some big waves.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. lj762

    lj762 Scout

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    It's a watch, not a warning. Watch and see which way it turns and how far, I guess. But Tuesday looks bad. Details here:
     
  13. 46er

    46er Piney

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    3-5 inches of rain forecast.
     
  14. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    I guess there's still a lot of uncertainty. This morning the tropical storm language is gone from the NWS forecast again and the current briefing only says "a period of heavy rain is possible"...

    http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
    __________________

    Tonight
    A chance of showers, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

    Tuesday
    Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    Tuesday Night
    Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
     
  15. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Amazing how the weather sites differ and both under NOAA :worms: That's goobermint :rolleyes:

    Prepare for the worst and hope for the best ;) It all depends on where one lives.

    From the NHC;

     
  16. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    That NHC statement actually agrees pretty closely with the NWS info I posted above.
     
  17. 46er

    46er Piney

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    We must be reading different statements :confused:
     
  18. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Experimental guidance. After another loop, into the NY Bight.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. 46er

    46er Piney

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    it appears Toms River is preparing;



    [​IMG]

    Monday September 18, 2017, 10:58 AM

    Toms River Township Office of Emergency Management
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]

    Advisory: Free sandbags are available. Call (732) 341-3267 to reserve yours M-F 8:30am-4:30pm. Sand available in the TR Golf Course parking lot.


    Free sandbags are available. Call (732) 341-3267 to reserve yours M-F 8:30am-4:30pm. Sand available in the TR Golf Course parking lot on North Bay Avenue.

    For full details, view this message on the web.
     
  20. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    I guess so....

    Your post said: "Heavy rain is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening".
    My post said: "a period of heavy rain is possible"

    Your post said: "Between 1 and 2 inches of rain is forecast"

    If you add the upper estimates of rain in my post you get .25 + .50 + .50 = 1.25 inches (which is between 1 and 2 inches).

    Then if you read the current briefing link in my post, it pretty much covers the other issues in the quote you posted.