This heat should raise some alarms

LongIslandPiney

Explorer
Jan 11, 2006
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0
And I'm not just talking red flag ones either. I imagine it is even hotter in New Jersey than up here on Long Island. We have been in the 80s for like 5 days straight, plus humidity. Today was a killer, temps almost reaching 90 and many records broken. I really wish people would hear me out on this.
Never remember this kind of heat in October. It is still warm out there, mid 80s, since the sun went down.
This has been a heat wave of historic proportions. It really is beginning to sound like a broken record, but nobody takes it seriously.
It used to be we had four seasons on Long Island, winter, spring, summer, and fall. Now we have two seasons, a winter/spring hybrid and summer. We've lucky to get a month or two of actual cold, winter weather. Fall and spring have become like summer, with frequent hot weather. Think about it, it seems we setting departures of 20-30 degrees above normal, when was last time we were 20-30 degrees BELOW normal?
It is just getting too warm for me. I should be in the woods hiking in crisp cool weather as the leaves start to change. Instead it is too hot for any walking, and things are so tinder dry that even many kettle ponds have dried up. Lately, over half the year is so warm I cant do the walking I used to. Sorry, me and warm weather (that is anything above 70 folks) don't mix, I sweat like crazy and get dehydrated real fast. With the lack of exercise I have gained weight in recent years, 15-20lbs since the beginning of 2006. So for me it becomes a health issue. I may have to move north, to Maine, or even Canada to escape this heat. (sorry gyms are not my thing)
This historic weather should remind people that global warming is real. Ice cover keeps shrinking at the north pole, less cold air, more heat. Esp now that the oceans are warming up too.
Whether it is man made or not, why risk a climate catastrophe? I'm not even talking alternative fuels here, if people just gave up SUV's and other vehicles with poor fuel economy and high pollution, it would make a huge difference. Imagine if everyone drove a hybrid car, we'd be putting less than 1/6 of the greenhouse gases we put into the air now.
Switching to compact flourescents and getting rid of incandescent bulbs would be like taking half our power plants off line. It's not like we'll have any less of a lifestyle, we'll be going to the gas station less, giving the power company less, and saving money, which should be a good thing.
People in America these days are energy hogs. Big SUV's, big houses, big TV'etc. (newer flat screen TV's use less juice tho).
We don't need a vehicle that seats 8 when at most we have is 2 or 3 people. Same thing goes for the houses, they put up these McMansions on old farms that would be fit for the Brady Bunch, yet it's only a young couple with 1 kid. We better start getting our act together, that's all I can say. A world in climate crisis means alot of issues, the drier climate will mean more drought and less fertile land to grow food. It will also mean more wars as resources become more scarse.
Why risk it? Just so you can say "my vehicle will kill your vehicle"?:eng101:
 

MarkBNJ

Piney
Jun 17, 2007
1,875
73
Long Valley, NJ
www.markbetz.net
This historic weather should remind people that global warming is real. Ice cover keeps shrinking at the north pole, less cold air, more heat. Esp now that the oceans are warming up too.

As I said in your other thread on this same topic... most of the current heat records for October in the state of NJ were set in the late 1930's through the early 1950's, and those temps meet or exceed what we've just experienced. Now whether global warming is occuring or not may be an open question (and after all, it is always either warming up or cooling down, so by definition we've got a 50/50 shot of being right); whether this spell of warm weather is a sign of it is not. Weather is an incredibly chaotic phenomena, and people are inclined to see patterns in it, and to regard their past experience as somehow normal. If you want to look for signs of global warming you need to at least get up to the level of average continental temperatures over decades, and not a string of warm days in October in New Jersey.

By the way, we'll be back in the fifties by the end of the week, so maybe the trend is shifting.
 

RednekF350

Piney
Feb 20, 2004
5,058
3,328
Pestletown, N.J.
I agree with Mark.
Its easy to believe it's an indication of global warming when you are standing in sweat in October but as soon as we return to normal in a few days, that perception will change.
Temperature records have not really been kept all that long from a historical perspective but they do indicate similar cyclical patterns over time.
Global warming theory was actually set forth by Al Gore to vindicate his image of being as dumb as a rock.
:)
As for me, no hybrid compacts in my future.
 

bobpbx

Piney
Staff member
Oct 25, 2002
14,677
4,851
Pines; Bamber area
Now whether global warming is occuring or not may be an open question (and after all, it is always either warming up or cooling down, so by definition we've got a 50/50 shot of being right); whether this spell of warm weather is a sign of it is not.

You can't have it both ways Mark. Global warming is still an open question to you? That is surprising you feel that way because lot of knowledgeable scientists think it is definitely real. You think its 50-50 because the world increases in temperatures enough to go through ice ages, and while that may be true, and we are in the warm cycle, global warming will cause it to get even warmer quicker, not a real good thing.

You go on to assert that this spell of warm weather is not part of it. That is pretty confident for a guy who thinks we have at best a 50-50 shot of heading further up in temperature.
 

MarkBNJ

Piney
Jun 17, 2007
1,875
73
Long Valley, NJ
www.markbetz.net
You can't have it both ways Mark. Global warming is still an open question to you? That is surprising you feel that way because lot of knowledgeable scientists think it is definitely real. You think its 50-50 because the world increases in temperatures enough to go through ice ages, and while that may be true, and we are in the warm cycle, global warming will cause it to get even warmer quicker, not a real good thing.

You go on to assert that this spell of warm weather is not part of it. That is pretty confident for a guy who thinks we have at best a 50-50 shot of heading further up in temperature.

I think you missed my point, or I didn't express it well. I basically wanted to get away from the question of global warming, which can't be answered, and focus on the question of whether this hot spell is indicative of it, which can be answered. Also, I did not say we had a 50/50 shot of heading further up in temperature. I said, essentially, that proponents of the theory that the earth is warming have a 50% chance of being right regardless of the science.

I would simply suggest that it is misleading to read much into a hot day when the temperature record that was broken was set 75 years ago.

Edit: some more interesting information from today's NWS NE forecast discussion. Records for today in various cities across the area:

ATLANTIC CITY.....83 DEGREES IN 1990 ONE MORE TIME
PHILADELPHIA......86 DEGREES IN 1939
WILMINGTON........88 DEGREES IN 1939
ALLENTOWN.........83 DEGREES IN 1939
TRENTON...........86 DEGREES IN 1939
GEORGETOWN........86 DEGREES IN 1959
READING...........84 DEGREES IN 1959
MOUNT POCONO......82 DEGREES IN 1942-- End Changed Discussion --
 

dragoncjo

Piney
Aug 12, 2005
1,577
302
43
camden county
I personally can remember many halloweens were the temperatures were very warm. I remember trick or treating sweating to death in weather like this. It is getting cooler towards the end of the week......enjoy this weather while it lasts.
 

Boyd

Administrator
Staff member
Site Administrator
Jul 31, 2004
9,829
3,010
Ben's Branch, Stephen Creek
The Franklin Institute has some interesting Philadelphia climate data. Temperatures in the 80's - even 90 this time of year are not all that rare. Just looking at some random years going way back:

http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1879.gif
http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1887.gif
http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1908.gif
http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1919.gif
http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1939.gif
http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1949.gif
http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1959.gif

There's more... see the following: http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/index.html

Nevertheless, I've gotten tired of the hot humid weather also. And good thing... because the temperature made a dramatic drop this afternoon, and we're also finally getting some rain! :dance:
 

woodjin

Piney
Nov 8, 2004
4,348
334
Near Mt. Misery
My understanding of the general consensus on global warming in the scientific community is the same as Mark observed. Climatic trends spaning months or a few years are not indictive of anything.

I was also under the impression that global warming was accepted as fact by the vast majority of the scientific community, much of the arguments seem to be concentrated on the severity and time frame of environmental impact

Jeff
 

LongIslandPiney

Explorer
Jan 11, 2006
484
0
Mark, you should also note that record lows were set back then as well. When was the last time we had record lows? In recent years stations are constantly setting record highs, but what about record lows?
That should be yet another indication that global warming is indeed real. Sure we're going back to "normal" now, but what about below normal? We have these 20-30 degree warm anomolies in temps but we are not having 20-30 degree cold anomolies, to balance things out. Average things out and temps are getting warmer.
 

Bobbleton

Explorer
Mar 12, 2004
466
46
NJ
I would rather have global warming kill us all than spend the next six months sifting through pointless threads on this same painfully dumb topic. :bang:

I'm buying a hummer.
 

kingofthepines

Explorer
Sep 10, 2003
268
7
the final outpost
poster5.jpg
 

Sue Gremlin

Piney
Sep 13, 2005
1,288
245
61
Vicksburg, Michigan
Mark, you should also note that record lows were set back then as well. When was the last time we had record lows? In recent years stations are constantly setting record highs, but what about record lows?
That should be yet another indication that global warming is indeed real. Sure we're going back to "normal" now, but what about below normal? We have these 20-30 degree warm anomolies in temps but we are not having 20-30 degree cold anomolies, to balance things out. Average things out and temps are getting warmer.
Who's disputing that global warming is real?
 

Sue Gremlin

Piney
Sep 13, 2005
1,288
245
61
Vicksburg, Michigan
Temperature records have not really been kept all that long from a historical perspective but they do indicate similar cyclical patterns over time.
oh, I see now.
A lot of hard scientific evidence says otherwise. It's way beyond theory. I do understand the argument as to what's causing it and I respect your opinion of Al Gore.
But have you seen a map of the polar ice cap recently?
 

MarkBNJ

Piney
Jun 17, 2007
1,875
73
Long Valley, NJ
www.markbetz.net
Mark, you should also note that record lows were set back then as well. When was the last time we had record lows? In recent years stations are constantly setting record highs, but what about record lows?
That should be yet another indication that global warming is indeed real. Sure we're going back to "normal" now, but what about below normal? We have these 20-30 degree warm anomolies in temps but we are not having 20-30 degree cold anomolies, to balance things out. Average things out and temps are getting warmer.

LIP, you'll never get anywhere on this topic by parsing what you experience day by day, or even year by year. I don't know how to explain it better than I already have. We have had very cold spells within the last few years. Heck, all of this past May was cold, rainy, and windy. You notice what you perceive to be exceptional, which is why science applies rigorous standards to weed out biases.

I have not challenged the global warming theory in these posts. I don't doubt the science at all. I don't think it has much point, but I don't doubt it.
 
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