Traveler's Forecast for the Pine Barrens

[Boyd]

The amount of rainfall this year as of November was just over sixty inches, breaking the 1996 record.

Actually I was just looking at rainfall totals myself and it looked like rainfall has been fairly consistent over the past 5 years, ranging between 40 to 60 inches depending on exactly where you are. What data source were you using? The following comes from here: http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=1313193600&yday_analysis=0&layer[]=0&layer[]=1&layer[]=4&timetype=YM&loctype=STATE&units=engl&timeframe=current&timeYYYY=2011&timeMM=7&product=observed&loc=stateNJ

These are "water year" totals - 12 month period from October 1 - September 30.

 

[Gibby]

Boyd, I was using the Rutgers' climate page. The state average is now 60.7 inches, making it the wettest year on record.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/

 

[Boyd]

North Jersey may be skewing those averages - notice the areas with 70 to 80 inches in the 2011 water year image above. And look how much rain the Northwest part of the state got during September (when the hurricane hit). The pines didn't get nearly as much.

 

[Gibby]

Boyd, maybe we should change rainfall to precipitation. The term maybe more accurate. Factoring in snowfall amounts from early in the year , plus rainfall, makes the total understandable. The coast did receive more snow that I thought

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/?section=menu& target=wint1011snowtotals

 

[Boyd]

Yes, I said "rainfall" which could be confusing - sorry. But if you look at the images I posted, they are titled "Observed Precipitation".

 

[Gibby]

Yes, I said "rainfall" which could be confusing - sorry. But if you look at the images I posted, they are titled "Observed Precipitation".

I overlooked the image titles, that is what confused me. You are right about north Jersey totals bringing the average up.

 

[Boyd]

But back to my original point... I don't see any striking differences in Pines Precipitation over recent years. Just eyeballing some averages based on the images

2006 - 45"
2007 - 40"
2008 - 40"
2009 - 45"
2010 - 50"
2011 - 50"

 

[manumuskin]

I've noticed over the yearts that the core barrens seems to get a few more inches a year then we do down here in cumberland county.I wonder if thats due to tree transpiration increasing rainfall much as happens in the smokies though there the mountain factor also comes into play.

 

[Ben Ruset]

I feel that the problem is more that the state forest managers, in these parts anyway, have aligned themselves with the motorsports people for some reason or another, can't image what it could be beside perhaps the clean up they do every year, but then anyone could organize that.

Stop trolling.

 

[devilstoy]

is it possible to make one post with out hearing about al horner's hatred towards lifted vehicles , we've had tons of rain and the pines are considered wet lands arent they ? so expect it to be wet and flooded back there at times , im sick of all the bashing of the 4x4 guys already

 

[manumuskin]

Come on now,really! Can anyone on this forum really lift their own vehicle?I've always considered myself fairly strong though I know there probably be a few forumites stronger then I but I have a helluva time pushing a vehicle up a slight incline let alone bodily lifiting it off the ground.I mean we wouldn't need jacks and hydraulic lifts and winches and tow straps if we could lift our vehicles out of a mudhole now really! Geesh! I thought I was a dummy!

 

[Spung-Man]

But back to my original point... I don't see any striking differences in Pines Precipitation over recent years. Just eyeballing some averages based on the images

Boyd,

Nothing in climatology is ever that simple. There is tremendous spatial and temporal variation involved with periods of increasing and decreasing precipitation. While it is difficult to predict weather two-weeks out, let alone conjuring up long-term climate prognostications, there is a study that suggested the Northeast will experience wetter conditions.

http://live.psu.edu/story/40569​

No matter the cause for shallow ground-water variation, my worry is that the Pinelands have been slowly drying up over the last century, so it is a bit of a surprise to see some areas that were historically wet, but dried, may slowly becoming wet again. Climate change cuts both ways – additions and subtractions. Confounding stuff. On the other hand, well withdrawals are quantifiable phenomena that we can and should study for effects on the regional shallow water-table.

S-M

 

[MarkBNJ]

I overlooked the image titles, that is what confused me. You are right about north Jersey totals bringing the average up.

Yeah it's been very wet up here this year, especially with T.S. Irene, and then the October snow dump.

is it possible to make one post with out hearing about al horner's hatred towards lifted vehicles , we've had tons of rain and the pines are considered wet lands arent they ? so expect it to be wet and flooded back there at times , im sick of all the bashing of the 4x4 guys already

Some areas of the pines are low wetlands, and other areas are dry uplands. I don't know how this year's precip measures up, but I will say I've been out there plenty of times right after a major rainfall and not seen water as high, not seen it in some of the places we saw it last weekend. When you can't get out Quaker Bridge Rd. to Washington w/o 4WD that's pretty unusual in my experience.

Some of the holes we traversed on Saturday were the result of high water in a neighboring area overwhelming the roadway. Others were clearly caused by the action of vehicles eroding the roadbed and forming catch basins. Maybe there hasn't been as much money for roadwork over the last couple of years and it's starting to show. In any case, the Pines belong to everyone, and the main roads have long been accessible to people without 4WD trucks. They seem to be less so now.

 

[manumuskin]

Bring on the rain.Have kayak,will travel

 

[devilstoy]

its not so much that the trucks are causeing lower ground to fill with water , its more that certain areas really are changeing back there , i seen water recently in spots where i have never seen it before , and some of the offroaders may be going over there and tearing it up a little because of that , but there not really sesponible for causing the situation

 

[dogg57]

And then the rains came

 

[manumuskin]

its not so much that the trucks are causeing lower ground to fill with water , its more that certain areas really are changeing back there , i seen water recently in spots where i have never seen it before , and some of the offroaders may be going over there and tearing it up a little because of that , but there not really sesponible for causing the situation

believe whats going on is the trucks are digging into the water table which rises and falls with the rain levels and tends to drop in summer because of the vegetation sucking up water that would be allowed to accumulate and runoff in winter.Everything is shut down now so any rain we get will tend to make it to the water table and the higher the table gets the more the creeks will flow higher up their channels and the more low lying areas will fill up.I think a high water table is a good thing even if it inconveniences my driving routes.The water wouldn't be as big an inconvenience if the big trucks didn't get in what holes are already there and play and purposely make the holes deeper.There are planty of play holes off to the sides of the main roads and old gravel pits that they needn't play in roads the rest of us use.Thake high crossing as an example.just south of the tracks on the left side of the road is a very nasty hole that I have seen laughing kids stuck up to their grills in.Fine play there,don't dig holes in the middle of the Tuckerton Pike. Don't drive through meadows and swamps,find yourself an abandoned gravel pit that is obviously a play hole,no need to tear up old holes that are returning to a wild state. Go get stuck on a powerline road,plenty of those will bury you where they cross swamps.This is an overcrowded state but there is still room for everybody,for awhile anyway.

 

[devilstoy]

i totally understand that , and know exactly where your coming from and 100% agree

 

[Teegate]

I haven't been watching this thread and just caught up. Devilstoy, try to quote the post you are replying to. I don't know who you were referring to in your last post.

Guy

 

[devilstoy]

I was replying to manumuskins post right above mine