Wet Forest - Formerly Known as Dry Forest

[Boyd]

Just got caught in some very intense rain about 5 miles from home. Visibility suddenly dropped to almost nothing, the road was beginning to flood. No other cars on the road fortunately, made it home very slowly and all is well. According to that map above, I can take consolation that my area only has a 5% probability of "excessive rainfall leading to rapid onset flooding".

 

[Teegate]

It has been raining here since about 7:30 and we only have received .22 inches. It has been slow and steady.

 

[smoke_jumper]

Looks like this weekend is going to be a wash. Especially Saturday.

 

[this_is_nascar]

Yeah, there's supposed to be a pig roast or something at one of the VFW posts in Fort Dix on Saturday. I guess that's in jeopardy, based on the weather..

 

[Boyd]

 

[Boyd]

 

[Boyd]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
406 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

NJZ013-014-020-022-023-027-222115-
/O.CON.KPHI.WI.Y.0007.230923T1000Z-230924T0000Z/
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, Hammonton,
Cape May Court House, and Wharton State Forest
406 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Western Monmouth, Eastern Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic,
Cape May and Southeastern Burlington.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

 

[Boyd]

Forest isn't gonna be so dry when this is done! Apparently, that won't be anytime soon. Getting a lot of rain here now, but this is just the tail of a huge storm with the center in Greenville, NC.

https://boydsmaps.com/nexrad/#6/39.6537/-74.5903

Only moving around 13 mph, track shows it going inland around Washington, DC, then curving back through NJ and out to sea on Monday. Maybe we'll get a break for awhile for awhile as it rotates?

Rain forecast for Wharton State Forest...

Today: Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Tonight: Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Sunday: Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday: Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

[bobpbx]

Seems like NOAA finally fixed their map.

 

[dragoncjo]

Would like to see us get 2-4 inches out of this and maybe 1 more of these in coming weeks. Still need a lot more wetlands to fill.

 

[Teegate]

The problem is the rain fills the roads making it hard to get places anymore.

 

[Boyd]

Looks like the worst is probably over...

Today: Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight: Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday: Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Night: Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

 

[this_is_nascar]

So far, Egg Harbor City seems to have most rain so far, at 5". Only sitting at 2 inches at my place and I think that's all come within the last 4-hours.

 

[Boyd]

The problem is the rain fills the roads making it hard to get places anymore.

Might not be so bad this time. I'm sure there are plenty of variations depending on topography and local rainfall, but I briefly drove around the Peaslee WMA this morning and everything seemed OK. The usual puddles were there, but nowhere near full. One little dead pine partially blocked the road, no problem going around it. I think the ground was dry enough and rain slow enough that quite a bit was absorbed.

Went for an evening walk out back yesterday and the only problem at my place was a dead pine (another casualty of the beetles) that snapped off and blocked one of my little trails. Gonna need the chain saw for that. Looks like I got somewhere between 3 and 4 inches here. Creek level rose a few inches but still much lower than it was at this time last year.

 

[Boyd]

Cumulative rain totals from the past 7 days...

 

[Boyd]

Looks like the heavier rains will be to the North. In Atlantic County, my forecast calls for up to about 2 inches of rain but the forecast for Chatsworth is over 4 inches! Not much wind, at least.

 

[bobpbx]

Barnegat had heavy downpours around 5:30 or so this afternoon. I think it was unexpected.

 

[Boyd]

I decided to wait until around 4:00 to take a walk today, hoping it might clear up since it was overcast earlier. Finally got out and it was a mix of rain, wind and clearing. Was surprised because I didn't recall any significant rain in the forecast. Got pretty wet, but it actually felt good.

 

[Teegate]

It was really raining hard about a half hour ago but has subsided.

 

[this_is_nascar]

My wife was awaken at 4am due to the heavy rains. I comfortably continued to sleep. We're clear right now, but some of you may be getting hammered right now.