2017-18 Winter weather

Discussion in 'Nature and the Environment' started by 46er, Oct 16, 2017.

  1. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    Here comes the next one...
    ___________________________________

    Hazardous Weather Outlook
    National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
    543 AM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

    A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will affect the area with snow or
    rain changing to snow, Monday afternoon and night. At this point,
    forecast confidence regarding extent of accumulative snow coverage
    remains below average. Snow amounts will depend on the storms track
    as well as surface temperatures.

    more_snow.png
     
  2. 46er

    46er Piney

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    And another right behind it. They are running on a better schedule than Amtrak.

    But the disclaimer for Mon/Tues;

    "Uncertainty in Snowfall Forecast: 

    There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of the storm system."

    http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

    Which means it could be worse, or it could be better, or it could be nothing at all :rolleyes:
     
    #262 46er, Mar 11, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2018
  3. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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  4. bobpbx

    bobpbx Piney
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    These are weathermen? I'm going down to the docks and find Larry, he'll give me the forecast.

    BTW, was in Greenwood Forest today, and the wind overhead was pulsing rapidly. I have never heard that before. It lasted 20 seconds.
     
    #264 bobpbx, Mar 12, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2018
  5. this_is_nascar

    this_is_nascar Explorer

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    I had to make a run down the AC Expressway yesterday. Never in my life did I see so many downed trees. It looked like a major wind went thru there.
     
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  6. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    Where did you see this? Have not noticed anything like that in my part of Atlantic County. I noticed one area (after the first storm with the high winds) where there were a lot of downed trees. But these were all dead trees from the pine beetle outbreak several years ago and they were easily blown down.

    Out in my own woods, I had three large oaks go down. But they have been dead for a number of years and I've actually been surprised they survived this long.
     
  7. this_is_nascar

    this_is_nascar Explorer

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    From the start, down to Exit 5. Everytime you looked to the side there were new trees down.
     
  8. 46er

    46er Piney

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    More next week? Maybe.

    It has been a bountiful winter in some places, and may leave with a 3-5" bang.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. 46er

    46er Piney

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    It's guesstimate time once again. :worms: Pick your door' #1, #2 or #3 :)

    [​IMG]


    US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly· 1 hr ·

    Here is the latest official snowfall forecast and low-/high-end probability scenarios for the upcoming coastal storm. This will be a long duration event starting in our southern areas late tonight and continuing into Wednesday as it will come in two waves. However, there is growing concern for more substantial snowfall and higher impacts to the region, including travel hazards, coastal flooding and more power outages, with the second wave on Wednesday. However, there is still high uncertainty with the track of the storm, especially for Wednesday (this is why we are emphasizing the different scenarios).

    [​IMG]
     
  10. 46er

    46er Piney

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    My latest 'No Miss' forecast from my newly created Take a Guess Weather Service. It could fall in the form of rain, snow, hail, sleet, freezing rain or pollen. ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  11. this_is_nascar

    this_is_nascar Explorer

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    Road crews are laying the brine like there's no tomorrow.
     
  12. 46er

    46er Piney

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    The updated forecast will be out in a couple hours. Expect it to trend upwards.
     
  13. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    It sure did! :eek:

    new.png

    Hazardous Weather Outlook
    National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
    525 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

    DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-200930-
    Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
    Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
    Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
    525 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

    This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
    New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

    .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

    There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

    A coastal storm will impact the region on Tuesday. A wintry mix is
    expected to overspread the area from the south Tuesday morning and
    could impact travel during the day, especially north of Atlantic
    City, New Jersey where rain is less likely. Strong northeast
    winds gusts to 40 mph are expected along the coast.

    A second, probably stronger, coastal low is expected to develop
    Tuesday night and impact portions of the region on Wednesday. There
    is a potential for significant snowfall if the storm tracks close
    enough to the area. The combination of heavy wet snow and strong
    northeast winds could lead to extensive power outages in this
    scenario. However, there is still considerable uncertainty in the
    track of the second coastal storm, so please continue to monitor the
    latest forecast.

    The risk for minor coastal flooding will increase late Tuesday. Minor
    to moderate coastal flooding is possible on Wednesday.
     
  14. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Guess what I did yesterday. :rolleyes:
     
  15. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    Stocked up on milk and bread? :p
     
  16. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Tucked both snowblower's away. I guess this one is my fault :D Maybe if I gas them up it will go out to sea.
     
  17. enormiss

    enormiss Explorer

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    Laziness pays off, the chains and plow are still on my riding mower :)
     
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  18. 46er

    46er Piney

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    Going UP. Big blower is now untucked.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Boyd

    Boyd Super Moderator
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    New briefing is available: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

    This one has me scratching my head because the "expected" snow totals are greater than the "high end potential" in some cases. I think we should just go with 46er's "no miss" forecast. :D


    expected.png


    high.png
     
  20. RednekF350

    RednekF350 Piney

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    Maybe we'll see this again.
    28" of snow on February 26, 2010. Taking the late, great Hank back to the bogs an hour after it all stopped.
    h228514868_10211900342849447_8505493965448180187_o.jpg
     
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