Kind of surprised, that storm headed farther north and is completely missing me. The heaviest part looks like it will make landfall somewhere around Toms River or Lakewood now.
RAIN?
- Thread starter dogg57
- Start date
Another 1+ inch of rain predicted for Thursday and Friday.
Was just noticing that too. We got almost 3 inches in the last storm, there was a lot of road flooding and the creek was over its banks in a few spots. That didn't last long, but things are definitely looking better. 
Fingers crossed; heading up north next week for our annual falling waters of spring trip.
Break in time for the new camera.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
725 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017
DEC001-003-MDC011-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-011-015-029-033-221715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0025.170522T1125Z-170522T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Kent DE-Talbot MD-Queen Anne`s MD-Caroline MD-Kent MD-
Ocean NJ-Camden NJ-Atlantic NJ-Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-Gloucester NJ-
Burlington NJ-
725 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a
* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
Southwestern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
Kent County in central Delaware...
Talbot County in eastern Maryland...
Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland...
Caroline County in eastern Maryland...
Central Kent County in northeastern Maryland...
Central Ocean County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Camden County in southern New Jersey...
Atlantic County in southern New Jersey...
Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
Central Salem County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
* Until 115 PM EDT
* At 718 AM EDT...Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
periods of moderate to heavy rain which will cause brief periods
of minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in
minor flooding in portions of the advisory area. Parts of central
Delaware including Smyrna and Kenton as well as Upper Deerfield
and Greenwich in southwest New Jersey have reported over 1 inch of
rain early today.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Toms River, Vineland, Dover, Millville, Bridgeton, Easton,
Centerville, Cumberland, Barnegat, Glassboro, Hammonton, Beachwood,
Smyrna, Absecon, Shamong, Buena, Denton, Centreville, Egg Harbor
City and Laurel Lake.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over portions of
this advisory area between 7 AM and 1 PM. This additional rain will
result in pockets of minor flooding. Isolated event storm totals of
3 inches are possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around...don`t drown when encountering any flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams...rivers...or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.
A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated...or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
&&
LAT...LON 3946 7430 3937 7477 3916 7515 3939 7549
3927 7537 3903 7534 3859 7605 3862 7612
3863 7612 3885 7628 3886 7626 3878 7621
3894 7621 3889 7629 3897 7635 3904 7631
3900 7617 3910 7623 3960 7535 4007 7402
$$
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
725 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017
DEC001-003-MDC011-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-011-015-029-033-221715-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0025.170522T1125Z-170522T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Kent DE-Talbot MD-Queen Anne`s MD-Caroline MD-Kent MD-
Ocean NJ-Camden NJ-Atlantic NJ-Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-Gloucester NJ-
Burlington NJ-
725 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a
* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
Southwestern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
Kent County in central Delaware...
Talbot County in eastern Maryland...
Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland...
Caroline County in eastern Maryland...
Central Kent County in northeastern Maryland...
Central Ocean County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Camden County in southern New Jersey...
Atlantic County in southern New Jersey...
Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
Central Salem County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
Southeastern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
* Until 115 PM EDT
* At 718 AM EDT...Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
periods of moderate to heavy rain which will cause brief periods
of minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in
minor flooding in portions of the advisory area. Parts of central
Delaware including Smyrna and Kenton as well as Upper Deerfield
and Greenwich in southwest New Jersey have reported over 1 inch of
rain early today.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Toms River, Vineland, Dover, Millville, Bridgeton, Easton,
Centerville, Cumberland, Barnegat, Glassboro, Hammonton, Beachwood,
Smyrna, Absecon, Shamong, Buena, Denton, Centreville, Egg Harbor
City and Laurel Lake.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over portions of
this advisory area between 7 AM and 1 PM. This additional rain will
result in pockets of minor flooding. Isolated event storm totals of
3 inches are possible.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around...don`t drown when encountering any flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams...rivers...or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.
A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated...or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
&&
LAT...LON 3946 7430 3937 7477 3916 7515 3939 7549
3927 7537 3903 7534 3859 7605 3862 7612
3863 7612 3885 7628 3886 7626 3878 7621
3894 7621 3889 7629 3897 7635 3904 7631
3900 7617 3910 7623 3960 7535 4007 7402
$$
Saturday is looking worse than the forecast just 6 hours ago. I can't understand why the forecasting is not as good as it was just 10 years ago.
Especially since NOAA spent several hundred million bucks on new, improved weather forecasting satellite's. Total project cost over $10 billion.
Last edited:
Can you explain that? I don't see much of a change to Saturday's forecast.
Saturday
A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
About 8 hours prior to writing my post, I recall the forecast being 76 degrees and partly sunny with no rain forecast. And that was the forecast for 2 or 3 days. It suddenly started sliding downhill (for this area) to 72 degrees and partly sunny with a 30% chance of rain later in the afternoon.
I have also been keeping an eye on the weekend forecast since we were supposed to have a big party here (although we just postponed it). So Saturday went from a low probability of rain to a 30% probability.
I don't see anything remarkable about that, they are just making the best estimate based on current data. I have to disagree about current forecasting being less accurate than 10 years ago, it seems better to me. Are there some studies that support your view?
I don't see anything remarkable about that, they are just making the best estimate based on current data. I have to disagree about current forecasting being less accurate than 10 years ago, it seems better to me. Are there some studies that support your view?
I'm going by memory and experience. Part of my experience involves scheduling over 70 PBX weekend hikes. I used to be able to, with high confidence, tell the crew on Friday noon, that we were good to go. Now I wait till 6 PM and still have been caught off-guard by an 11 PM change to the forecast.
I think they are hedging their bets too much. How many predicted snowstorms in the last few years were duds?
Now its down to 68 degrees for tomorrow and a 30% chance of showers, and they are no longer even showing the sun in their graphic.
Well I'll admit you have a point there.
I recall there was a change to their policy on storm warnings after the "derecho" a few years ago, since it caught them off-guard and caused a lot of damage.
Do you recall that Derecho? That was wild! It knocked down some weak (but huge) cedars downwind of Bamber Lake like they were toys. I was shocked. This morning, I heard the weather channel host mentioning the cells assembling in the midwest could conceivably spawn one. Here is a good Wiki article on that last one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho
I remember it very well, it was pretty devastating in my area. My power was out for 5 days, there were an unbelievable amount of trees and powerlines down. Virtually every road in the area was un-passable for two days. It was much worse than Sandy around here and the damage took many months to repair. There was no warning and I literally slept through the whole thing, just thought it was a bad thunderstorm!
https://forums.njpinebarrens.com/threads/here-comes-the-hot-weather.8394/page-2#post-99801
https://forums.njpinebarrens.com/threads/here-comes-the-hot-weather.8394/page-2#post-99801
Whoops! Back up to 70 this morning and now partly sunny, with no mention of rain. A roller coaster.
Using these 2 maps, you can get as accurate a forecast as all the other forecastenater's. Or get a weather rocky and be on the money every time.
Watch your highs and lows and the way the wind does blow.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-82.04,39.03,2048/loc=-74.552,39.664
Watch your highs and lows and the way the wind does blow.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-82.04,39.03,2048/loc=-74.552,39.664
Still 12 to 18 hours away so anything could happen but at this time possible heavy rain forecast for tomorrow afternoon and evening 1-2 inches with some areas receiving up to 4.